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Trade and distribution

Patterns of trade, production, and consumption

The effects of changing patterns of growth, production, consumption, trade and energy use on CO2 emissions in Poland in 1995-2009

ID: 0829
Authors: Jan Mizgajski

Abstract: The paper seeks to identify changes of patterns in growth, production, consumption, trade and energy use in Poland and to measure their effects on CO2 emissions in 1995-2009. The computations are based on structural decomposition analysis of environmentally extended input-output model. The scope of analyses covers a set of 35 sectors of the Polish economy, which are sources of CO2 emissions from fuel combustion. Emissions were analysed on a year-to-year basis, which enables to analyse the dynamic changes of the period of Polish transformation to market-based economy.

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International spillover and rebound effects from increased energy efficiency in Germany

ID: 0568
Authors: Karen Turner, Kim Swales, Simon Koesler

Abstract: The pollution/energy leakage literature raises the concern that policies implemented in one country, such as a carbon tax or tight energy restrictions, might simply result in the reallocation of energy use to other countries. This paper addresses these concerns in the context of policies to increase energy efficiency, rather than direct action to reduce energy use. Using a global CGE simulation model, we extend the analyses of ‘economy-wide’ rebound from the national focus of previous studies to incorporate international spill-over effects from trade in goods and services. Our focus is to investigate whether these effects have the potential to increase or reduce the overall (global) rebound of local energy efficiency improvements. In the case we consider, an increased energy efficiency in German production generates changes in comparative advantage that produce negative leakage effects, thereby actually rendering global rebound less than national rebound.

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Consumption-based emissions and global decarbonization in 2020

ID: 0293
Authors: Kirsten Wiebe, Christian Lutz

Abstract: Based on the World Energy Outlook New Policies and 450ppm scenarios the paper investigates the past and future development of EU28’s consumption based emissions. To this end two models need to be combined, a dynamic macro-econometric system of national input-output models with a detailed representation of the energy industry linked via bilateral trade and a multi-regional input-output accounting system. The former model is used for projecting the economic development, associated energy use and emissions of about 60 countries for the two scenarios. The latter model is used to combine input-output data with bilateral trade data in such a way that it is possible to allocate territorial emissions along global production chains to final consumption. After an increase until the late 2000’s, EU28 consumption-based emissions are expected to decrease over the next decades; more so if countries outside the EU decrease their emissions as well (450ppm versus New Policies scenario).

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Hidden energy flows in Danish international trade: a long-run study of energy use under a consumption perspective

ID: 0868
Authors: Sofia Henriques, Astrid Kander, Paul Sharp

Abstract: In this paper we investigate the historical levels of Danish energy use under a consumption perspective. We calculate the amounts of energy embodied in Danish international trade from 1870 to the present days. Denmark was a country with practically no fossil fuel reserves which developed through exports of agriculture goods. A plausible hypothesis is that Denmark was a net importer of energy, and that the energy embodied in fossil fuel energy-intensive imports (such as iron and steel) outweighed the energy embodied in her agriculture exports. However, Danish agriculture was particularly energy intensive needing vast amounts of coal and feed per unit of output, which can lead to the rejection of the initial hypothesis. The results of this study will also allow to understand the ecological flows embodied in the Anglo-Danish trade and the influence of different trade periods in Denmark´s energy intensity

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Demand-side interventions for resource efficiency in the EU

ID: 0873
Authors: Kate Scott, John Barrett

Abstract: Applying a consumption-perspective to resource use in the EU can increase the scale and scope for resource efficiency policy. Micro energy efficiency policies are not realising their full energy demand reduction potential due to rebound effects. Addressing resource demand across product supply chains opens up further avenues for cost-effective reduction strategies. This paper will identify additional demand-side policy intervention opportunities across product supply chains for energy demand reduction across the EU; quantify how much they can contribute to meeting energy and climate change targets; and suggest what policies would be most effective in changing behaviours to meet energy demand and emissions reduction targets.

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The nexus of emissions and energy consumption in the transport sector and economic activity

ID: 0582
Authors: Lidia Andres, Emilio Padilla

Abstract: The aim of this research is to study the trends and the causal relationship between emissions and energy consumption in the transport sector and the activity of the whole economy. In order to help the design of measures to reduce emissions and energy consumption in the transport sector without affecting economic activity, it is very important to elucidate the causality between these variables. In other words, it is necessary to answer to the question if it is possible to reduce emissions and energy consumption in the transport sector and, at the same time, to increase economic activity.

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Addressing Northern overconsumption and its impacts in the global South

ID: 0904
Authors: Marco Sakai

Abstract: Overconsumption is a problem that requires to be urgently addressed, especially in high-income countries. These nations, for example, house around 15% of the world’s population and account for 75% of global consumption expenditure. One of the greatest symptoms associated with this problem is global warming. Rapid absolute reductions in energy and material use must be achieved to avoid dangerous effects over time. This paper focuses on the case of CO2 emissions. Its objective is to quantify the trade-offs between achieving cuts in consumption-based emissions in wealthy countries and attaining economic benefits through international trade in developing economies. The analysis relies on Environmentally-Extended Multi-Regional Input-Output analysis. The findings reveal that curbing consumption in the North involves an important trade-off. While reducing Northern consumption can contribute to reduce emissions and free carbon space, they can also curtail the development opportunities available to the global South.

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Assessment of Virtual Water Trade Flows embedded in paddy for Sustainable Use of Water Resources in India

ID: 0806
Authors: Suparana Katyaini, Anamika Barua

Abstract: India is among the largest global water user. There is a concern over water security both at regional and national level. It is linked with food security, livelihood security and environmental sustainability. Virtual Water (VW) is water embedded in goods and services. It is at science policy interface; its rationale is ‘to distribute water scarcity’ through identifying unsustainable pattern of water use. The study aims to address research gap on inter-state virtual water trade (VWT) flows in India through determining ‘water savings’ and unsustainable patterns in movement of paddy during 1996-2005.

VWT concept encompasses ‘water footprints’ (WF) and ‘water savings’ (WS). It captures both direct and indirect impacts. There is a paradigm shift towards recognizing its importance. WS assessment reveals annual national WS in the movement of paddy during 1996-2005, except in 1999-2000 and 2001-02. Largest national WS was approximately 127.8 X 106 m3 in 2002-03.

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Disaggregating agricultural water flows in the world

ID: 0230
Authors: Ana Serrano, Rosa Duarte, Dabo Guan, Vicente Pinilla

Abstract: Water resources are growingly transferred embodied in products internationally traded. These water displacements involve global inequalities that need to be addressed by setting consumption and production responsibilities. Although Multi-Regional Input Output models are powerful tools to assess the interrelations among countries and sectors in global supply chains, the lack of sufficiently disaggregated sectorial data in the empirical applications may entail a notable drawback for assessing some regional problems. This is particularly important when studying water resources, since agriculture accounts for 70% of water consumption all over the world. Therefore, in this paper we will try to join bilateral trade data on agricultural products with WIOD multiregional tables. This will allow us to analyze water consumption trends between 1995 and 2009. Besides, we will use a Structural Decomposition Analysis that will divide the sample depending on the level of income of countries and will allow explaining the drivers of these trajectories.

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Regional Material Flow Accounting: The Spanish Case

ID: 0022
Authors: Sergio Sastre, Oscar Carpintero, Pedro Luis Lomas

Abstract: Within Economy-Wide Material Flow Accounting, the Physical Trade Balances have been widely acknowledged as a powerful tool to evaluate the allocation of environmental burdens through trade across nations. This article approaches this issue from a subnational perspective. The International (In) and Interregional (Ir) Physical Trade Balances (PTB) of the seventeen Spanish regions are calculated the period 1996-2010. Results show that: 1) interregional trade is as relevant as international trade in terms of the absolute physical exchanges. 2) The composition of the IrPTB and InPTB are qualitatively dissimilar. 3) Patterns of environmental burden shifting are also found at the regional scale. Our database covers only direct flows which may be conceived as a first step in the understanding of the subnational patterns of trade. Further debate and research must include estimates on indirect flows and/or raw material equivalents in order to complete the picture.

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Looking at the supply chains from producer to consumer responsibility. (Water) Footprints at the micro and meso scale in Spain

ID: 0405
Authors: Ignacio Cazcarro, Rosa Duarte, Julio Sánchez-chóliz

Abstract: The footprints of production and consumption have been widely computed and discussed in the literature of input-output (IO) with different treatment of responsibilities. Among the key issues to obtain coherent measures we find the questions of imports assumptions, levels of spatial aggregation, and the possibility of assigning, tracking and identifying responsibilities at intermediate sectoral or individual levels. In the past years, we have combined the information of a multiregional input-output model for the 17 Spanish regions (plus the regions of European Union and Rest of the World) with GIS and micro data to lower the spatial scale, especially in order to provide information to local municipalities. This leaded us to perform specific applications, such as the influence of regional consumption on localized areas of other regions. We show the very different distribution of impacts of domestic households, national and foreign tourism, being the foreign impacts particularly concentrated in space.

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Learning from the material intensity of nickel

ID: 0916
Authors: Barbara Reck, Thomas E. Graedel

Abstract: A country’s material requirements vary with its level of industrialization and development, with emerging economies showing higher material demand than mature economies. A key question is how emerging economies can achieve their goal of higher living standards for all without exhausting the resources of our planet. To answer this question it is helpful to understand the current and past material intensity of use for countries at different economic development stages. In this study we analyze the use of nickel for 52 countries for the period 1950-2010, data generated through a dynamic material flow analysis. Preliminary results show no clear pattern for nickel’s material intensity of use in industrialized countries, suggesting other drivers than just GDP. We identify substitution as a key influencing factor, particularly towards nickel-free stainless steels. In the material selection process such substitution effects reflect different consumer preferences in terms of performance, appearance and price.

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Trade in transformation: Accounting for global resource use

A comparison of EXIOBASE, GTAP and EORA models to calculate material footprint

ID: 0425
Authors: Stefan Giljum, Heinz Schandl, Manfred Lenzen

Abstract: Domestic Material Consumption (DMC) is currently the most commonly used material flow-based indicator on the international level. However, the necessity to develop more comprehensive indicators of global material flows, so-called material footprint indicators, has been articulated by a large number of stakeholders. Multi-regional input-output (MRIO) models extended by world-wide data on material extraction have become a key method to assess material footprints. This paper will perform the first quantitative comparative assessment of selected MRIO databases to calculate material footprint indicators, notably the EORA, EXIOBASE and GTAP databases, using a globally harmonized data base of global material extraction currently developed for the UNEP-IRP as the physical satellite. Thereby, we will investigate why results for certain countries or world regions differ significantly when calculated with different MRIO models. The paper will present recommendations for the required steps to further harmonize available methods and on the interpretability of the respective results."

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Policy options for designing a carbon border tax

ID: 0329
Authors: Jordi Roca, Paola Rocchi, Iñaki Arto, Mònica Serrano

Abstract: The following analysis focuses on carbon-motivated border tax adjustments (CBTA), which are tariffs applied by countries implementing carbon control policies imposed on products imported from abroad. In particular we focus on CBTAs policy design, since CBTAs can be computed considering emissions embodied in imports, or referring to emissions avoided through imports. Using the WIOD database, we simulate through a multi-region and multi-sector analysis what tariffs system should be applied to products imported in Europe to compensate an European CO2 emissions taxation, considering embedded emissions or avoided emissions. To know for which countries and sectors the method used is critical can help to understand and to add information to the political debate on it. Furthermore, an important novelty of our analysis is that we estimate avoided emissions not only using the traditional “domestic technology assumption”, but also using a more appropriate approach that considers the physical quantities of imported goods."

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Effect of aggregation and disaggregation on embodied material use of products in input-output analysis

ID: 0217
Authors: A. de Koning

Abstract: Consumption based material footprints calculated with multi-regional Input-Output Analysis (mrIOA) can be influenced by the sectoral, spatial and material aggregation used in the mrIOAs. This study investigates the effect of resolution in mrIOAs on consumption based material footprints and material embedded in trade. The effect of aggregation was investigated by making different input-output tables with different spatial, product and material category resolution and comparing the calculated material footprints. Our results indicate that the material footprints of countries calculated with the different mrIO models are in general in the order of a few percentage with outliers in the order of 25% difference. For some product categories the results are structurally inaccurate. This result suggests that the material data used to create the material extensions for the IO framework should be collected at the highest resolution that is practically feasible."

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Biomass trade and food import dependency in the corporate food regime

ID: 0119
Authors: Andreas Mayer, Willi Haas, Anke Schaffartzik

Abstract: There are increasingly more demands on the land system, resulting in an intensified competition between different biomass uses as food, feed, fibres or biofuel. These additional industrial demands for biomass uses have strong impacts, e.g. rising global trade volumes. Proponents of the food regime theory underpin the strategic role of agriculture and food on global commodity markets, and stress that global trade flows of biomass are increasingly flowing from global South to global North, a reversal of flows compared to the second food regime (where flows mainly run from global North to South). Against this backdrop, we have clustered countries by income, food supply, and the role of food trade to identify patterns of food import dependency or high food exports. We compare metabolic patterns of countries that are net-exporters of biomass with net-importers of biomass, discussing these trade patterns regarding their consequences for the vulnerability of national food systems."

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Changing patterns of global agri-food trade and virtual water flows

ID: 0476
Authors: Jana Schwarz, Erik Mathijs, Miet Maertens

Abstract: In this paper we analyze the relation between the expansion and changing composition of global agri-food trade and flows of virtual water between world regions. Our database includes annual trade data of 101 countries from 1986 to 2011 trading 256 crop and livestock products which we classify into four commodity groups. The findings show that over time trade values have increased more than virtual water volumes; especially in Africa and South America where virtual water exports have roughly quadrupled since 1986. In all regions staples and industrial products account for the largest share in virtual water trade (>70%) whereas high-value products and animal products are of increasing importance for developing regions' export values. Water efficiency of trade, i.e. the money earned (spent) per unit of virtual water exported (imported) has increased in all regions since 2000 and export water efficiency is especially high in Europe."

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Biodiversity in input-output analysis: the indirect drivers of biodiversity loss

ID: 0897
Authors: Alexandra Marques, Inês Martins, Henrique Pereira

Abstract: In 2010, the European Union established its growth strategy for the ten years ahead, the EU 2020 Strategy. The Resource-Efficient Europe is one of its flagship initiatives, framed under the principle of sustainable growth. One of its key proposals is the EU Biodiversity Strategy to 2020 to halt biodiversity loss and ecosystems degradation. This strategy highlights the importance of reducing the impacts of EU consumption patterns, particularly for resources that have significant negative impacts on biodiversity. Understanding how consumption drives biodiversity loss due to land use change can provide new pathways for biodiversity conservation. In this work, we developed a biodiversity extension to EXIOBOASE, a global multi-regional environmentally extended input-output database. We used the countryside species area relationship to measure the number of species lost due to the activity of the land use sectors and analyze how consumption indirectly drives biodiversity loss.

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Tracking of land flows embodied in global non-food supply chains using a Hybrid-MRIO approach

ID: 0993
Authors: Mirko Lieber, Guenther Fischer, Sylvia Tramberend, Martin Bruckner

Abstract: In this paper we apply and discuss hybrid (mixed-unit) input-output analysis for the case of land flow accounting by integrating agricultural andforestry statistics on production, trade and utilization quantities in weight units for the years 1995-2011 with a multi-regional input-output (MRIO) system in monetary units. Thereby we add further detail to the bio-based sectors of the economy and trace actual physical flows, thus avoiding the uncertainties introduced by the homogeneity and proportionality assumptions in conventional (monetary) IOanalysis. Further utilization andtrade of bio-based commodities not covered in agricultural statistics in physical units, in particular non-food industrial commodities,are traced further to final consumers by integrating the physical systemwith a monetaryMRIOtable (EXIOBASE 3.0). The resulting global MFA-MRIOsystem canbe used to solidly trace directand indirect flows of biomass and relatedlanduse through international supply chains.

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How is Austrian RMC developing over time? A methods comparison extended

ID: 0996
Authors: Nina Eisenmenger, Anke Schaffartzik, Dominik Wiedenhofer

Abstract: The exchange of goods and the physical flows related to it gains high importance in discussing the sustainable use of resources of individual economies. Within the material flow accounting (MFA) framework, trade flows are considered at the time the good is crossing administrative borders. For a consumption based perspective, which is interested in accounting for all resources used for satisfying final demand of a country, the additional integration of upstream material use (also termed raw material equivalents, RME) of traded goods is required. Currently a number of different methods to calculate RME exist, mostly based on input-output tables applied in single-region- or multi-region input-output models, or hybrid LCA-IO methods. This method comparison for 2007 is now expanded by a time series that is available for three MRIO and three hybrid LCA-IO models.

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Distribution, equality, and social justice, including the rural-urban divide

Entropy, Gaia and the Invisible Hand

ID: 0316
Authors: Geoff Willis

Abstract: A basic economic model is presented that shows many emergent features seen in real world economies. These features include personal distributions of wealth and income, macroeconomic income shares, and distributions of company sizes. The models are stock-flow consistent, dynamic ABM models and were partly inspired by the work of Ayres & Nair. Other influences include standard finance and physics theory, classical economics, and the work of Sraffa, Minsky and Godley. Derived from these models, an asset-based welfare system is discussed which can provide a universal basic income even under zero growth conditions. All the models are in steady-state equilibrium and resemble 'Maximum Entropy Production' ecological models. As such, the models suggest that economic systems can be considered to be maximum entropy production systems that are sub-systems of the world ecological system as a whole – entropy, Gaia and the invisible hand are all essentially the same thing.

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Health narratives and the urban-rural divide: discursive practices versus contaminated realities of water and diarrhoea

ID: 0484
Authors: Panagiota Kotsila

Abstract: This article explores and questions the relationship between water supply & sanitation (WSS) and waterborne diseases, particularly in the case of diarrhoea. Analysing empirical material from the Mekong Delta, Vietnam, I show how this relationship is more unclear and complex than causal and linear. Such complexity, even though evidenced in official data, has been selectively silenced in Vietnam's official policy and discourse. It is hidden behind a state narrative which equates urbanisation with hygiene and health safety, while exclusively and falsely associates disease with rurality, poverty and backwardness; following a development agenda of ‘high modernism’. This work shows that the spread of disease is shaped by people’s access to safe water, environmentally and socially sustainable sanitation, as well as trusted healthcare and relevant health information. It however stresses that, in essence, these determinants depend more on political processes and decisions than on urban-rural categorisations and mainstream development indicators.

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Intergenerational Resource Sharing: An Experimental Study Using Rawls’s Veil of Ignorance

ID: 0639
Authors: Stephan Wolf, Cameron Dron

Abstract: Based on Rawls’s Veil, one may question the legitimacy of many decisions made by the currently living where burdens are shifted on future generations. For Rawls, this is normatively inacceptable: knowing their place in the generational sequence, the current generation fails decide from an impartial perspective. Starting from Rawls’s theory, we conducted a laboratory experiment on intergenerational resource sharing with 120 student participants. One part had to distribute a given endowment over 5 generations in the form of a sequential dictator game. In a second treatment, people could ex ante agree on a joint distribution; there was no formal enforcement mechanism, and people knew their position in the sequence. The third treatment was similar to the second, but while bargaining, people did not know their later position. As expected, bargaining as such created more equality, but to our surprise, the third treatment produce less egalitarian outcomes than the second one.

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The neglected social aspects of resource use caps

ID: 0628
Authors: Veronika Kiss, György Pataki

Abstract: This paper aims to put again into the spotlight the need for considering ecological limits, while ensuring dignity and fair benefit sharing for all by examining social aspects of energy resource capping proposals. Examining them deeply, it turns out that these tools not only address environmental problems but contribute significantly to human well-being.

Resource caps tools benefit the poor the most either rewarding marginalized people who use less energy or opening up opportunities for them through providing interest free loans and professional advice to transform their energy consumptions.. Among the social benefits they bring to society, are direct job creation, enhancement of human labour, reduced household costs as well as wider access to environmental friendly products and services. Furthermore, they create common purpose – aligning individual and collective aims to meet the requirement of the set energy caps, while using the fairly distributed energy units in the most efficient way.

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Measuring the rural-urban disparity with GDP, ISEW and life satisfaction: A case study in Japan

ID: 0150
Authors: Takashi Hayashi, Hiroki Saski

Abstract: This paper aims to measure rural-urban disparity in Japan with three different indicators: GDP, Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare (ISEW), and life satisfaction (LS), and to identify whether there is any difference in the determinants of SWB between rural and urban residents. Recent research has shown that subjective well-being (SWB), elicited in survey, can serve as an empirical proxy for people’s experienced utility. However, their application to rural-urban disparity issues is as yet rather limited. The results show that (1) rural-urban disparity is larger in the order of GDP, ISEW, then LS, (2) the volume of the disparity heavily depends on the indicator applied, and (3) various factors other than economic one affect to SWB particularly for rural residents. Therefore, we conclude that rural-urban disparity should be measured not only by economy based indicators like GDP and ISEW but also by subjective indicators.

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Community energy and the dynamics of inequality

ID: 0752
Authors: Emilia Melville, Tim Jackson, Ian Christie, Celia Way, Jim Coleman

Abstract: This paper considers the extent to which the growing community energy sector in the UK can be seen as part of the transformation to a more sustainable economy. Community energy institutions are viewed as attempts to transform the economic system whilst surviving within it. This pragmatic approach means that the transformational potential of the intervention is limited by the constraints of the wider system. This paper focuses on ways in which the community energy sector attempts to disrupt the systemic increase in economic inequality, and barriers to doing so. Issues identified so far include the relative legitimacy of local authority or ‘community’ action, the return on investment required to attract sufficient capital for large projects, the personal resources required to be able to participate, perpetuating social inequalities of privilege, and the procedural inequality issues associated with allocation of community benefit.

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Development within planetary boundaries? Distributional effects of recent African hydropower projects

ID: 0803
Authors: Ines Dombrowsky

Abstract: In Africa hydropower is on the rise and often promoted as a low carbon strategy for development within planetary boundaries. However, in the past hydropower development often took place at the expense of the project affected population (PAP). This paper therefore analyzes the likely distributional effects of the Ruzizi III and the Rusumo Falls hydropower projects which are currently planned in Africa’s Great Lakes region.

The paper finds that in both cases the PAP has high expectations that the projects will foster development, employment as well as access to electricity and other services. However, it also shows that considerable uncertainties exist among the PAP with respect to the projects' status, planned compensation procedures as well as benefit sharing mechanisms. While the projects are likely to contribute to low carbon development in urban areas, considerable additional efforts will be needed to ensure that they also truly benefit the project affected population.

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A world distribution of green house gas emissions

ID: 0613
Authors: Lucas Chancel

Abstract: The rise in domestic inequalities pose a substantial challenge to policymakers in the coming decades and little is known about how to reduce them under climate and resource constraints. This paper will estimate direct and indirect GHG emissions of different income and social groups in the USA and France over the past three decades using Multiregional Input Output methodologies. Estimates will then be used to address the following questions: How was the evolution of resource use distributed among income and social groups in France and the USA and what drivers explain these trends? What consumption categories account for the rise in material resource requirements over the past two decades and how does this change across countries, income and social groups? What types of changes in expenditure patterns and distribution would be consistent with equitable access and life satisfaction, while remaining within planetary boundaries?

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